October 2007 – Mortgage Rates in Australia

Mortgage rates are a hot topic in Australia at the moment. Two issues are at the forefront of any discussion on mortgage rates today.

Firstly there is general concern amongst borrowers in Australia that mortgage rates may further increase over the short term. The Reserve Bank has increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) a number of times this year and it is currently sitting at 6.50% p.a. These increases immediately impact on the cost of funds for lending institutions, both bank and non-bank, and as a result mortgage rates have also increased, with the banks standard variable rate now at 8.32% p.a. and the non-bank lenders generally in the market with mortgage rates around 7.75% p.a. By increasing the OCR the Reserve Bank is well aware that mortgage rates will follow suit. Under its charter, the Reserve Bank is responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy that will contribute to:

(a) the stability of the currency of Australia;

(b) the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and

(c) the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

These objectives have found practical expression in a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money and is the main way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.

So, how does an increase in the OCR and mortgage rates generally help achieve these inflation targets? As the mortgage rates increase across Australia, borrowers have less surplus cash to spend, there is less demand for consumables, businesses have less money to invest and as a result the economy is slowed down and the inflation rate is held in check. If the economy is too slow the Reserve bank can effectively reduce mortgage rates (by reducing the OCR) and thereby provide borrowers with more surplus funds. This increases demand for consumables and one sees greater economic activity.

It is ironical that because in Australia we are enjoying strong economic growth and have employment at an all time high we end up finding our mortgage rates increasing. If we were to save more rather than spend and borrow, inflation would not be increasing at the level it is and mortgage rates would remain steady.

But would they? This brings me to the second issue which has had a significant impact on mortgage rates and has made headlines in newspapers in Australia over the past few months. In the past mortgage rates in Australia have been pretty much domestically driven (i.e. by the Reserve Bank) but more recently we have seen mortgage rates influenced by problems occurring in international financial markets. The main culprit is the United States where there have been unprecedented mortgage defaults which have frightened off would be global lenders and investors in mortgage securities. Even though mortgage rates in Australia remain relatively low and defaults here are not a significant problem (in other words they remain a sound investment), the US default crisis has scared off potential investors. As a result mortgages are no longer flavour of the month and those that are still prepared invest are seeking a higher rate of return. Consequently the cost of funds world wide increases for debt securities and mortgage rates across the world increase as result. As noted earlier the banks current standard mortgage rates sit at 8.32% p.a. variable which is up to .50% more than the non bank mortgage rates of 7.75% p.a. Because the banks’ mortgage rates were considerably higher than the non-banks before the impact of the US situation, to date they have been able to hold their rates. The non-bank lenders, who have historically priced their mortgage rates below the banks, have had to move their mortgage rates sooner because they simply don’t have the profit margins, the “fat” in their pricing, which most banks enjoy.

The banks are endeavouring to gain market share with claims that they are holding their mortgage rates (8.32% p.a.) but hopefully borrowers will recognise that the mortgage rates of the non-bank mortgage manager lenders remain competitive. They might also want to consider where mortgage rates would be without the mortgage manager competing with the banks for their business. Prior to the non- bank mortgage manager entering the market, the banks’ mortgage rates contained profit margins of up to 3 % p.a. Back in the 1990s the non-bank lender was able to enter the market and compete aggressively for business because they were not trying to maximise profit at the expense of borrowers but rather offered mortgage rates that were well below the major banks. The banks were initially quite arrogant, holding their mortgage rates and profit margins, thinking that lower mortgage rates would not be enough to woo borrowers. Little did they realise that the non-bank sector not only offered lower mortgage rates but also professional and friendly service. It took around 3 years before the banks finally reduced their margins and offered mortgage rates that were somewhat more competitive.

The next few months will determine whether the US mortgage crisis will be a short term problem for mortgage rates or whether the meltdown in America will have a long term impact on mortgage rates in Australia. In the meantime keep an eye on mortgage rates across the market, sit tight because no matter which lender you are with, mortgage rates over the next few months will be a little unpredictable but inevitably are likely to settle down again.

How You Can Learn to Predict Mortgage Rates, Too

How you can learn to predict mortgage rates, too.

Many people, particularly, first-home buyers, tend to shop around for the cheapest mortgage rate that they see not knowing, or understanding, that these rates dip and fall. If you get an understanding of how mortgage rates work, you will be in a far better position to land one that really works for you and may even be cheaper than the one you’re ready to commit to, say, today.

Here’s how mortgage rates work.

The firs thing you should know about these rates is that they are unpredictable. They change. A high rate today may be low tomorrow. At one time, these rates were more stable. They were set by the bank. But since the 1950s, Wall Street took over and adjusted them according to supply and demand. Or more accurately, Wall Street linked them to bonds. So that when bonds – that are bought and sold on Wall Street – drop, mortgage rates do, too.

How can I know today’s bonds rates?

It sounds simple: let’s keep up with the prices of bonds and we’ll know when to shop for our mortgage. Unfortunately, only Wall Street has access to this knowledge (called “mortgage-backed securities” (MBS) data). And they pay tens of thousands of dollars for access to it in real-time.

Here’s how you can make an educated guess:

Calculate according to, what’s called, the Thirty-year mortgage rates.

These are the events that lower rates in any given 30 years:

  • Falling inflation rates, because low inflation increases demand for mortgage bonds
  • Weaker-than-expected economic data, because a weak economy increases demand for mortgage bonds
  • War, disaster and calamity, because “uncertainty” increases demand for mortgage bonds

Conversely, rising inflation rates; stronger-than-expected economic data; and the “calming down” of a geopolitical situation tend to elevate rates.

The most common mortgages and mortgage rates

You’ll also find that mortgages vary according to the level of your credit rating. The higher your credit score, the more likely you are to win a lower mortgage rate.

Mortgage rates also vary by loan type.

There are four main loan types each of which has a different level of interest. In each case, this level of interest hinges on mortgage-secured bonds. The four loan types together make up 90 percent of mortgage loans doled out to US consumers.

Which mortgage loan do you want?

Here is the list:

1. Conventional Mortgages – These loans are backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac who have set regulations and requirements for their procedures. The Fannie Mae mortgage-backed bond is linked to mortgage interest rates via Fannie Mae. The Freddie Mac mortgage-backed bond is linked to mortgage-backed bonds via Freddie Mac.

Mortgage programs that use conventional mortgage interest rates include the “standard” 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for borrowers who make a 20% downpayment or more; the HARP loan for underwater borrowers; the Fannie Mae HomePath mortgage for buyers of foreclosed properties; and, the equity-replacing Delayed Financing loan for buyers who pay cash for a home.

2. FHA mortgage – These are mortgage rates given by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The upside of these loans is that you have the possibility of a very low downpayment – just 3.5%. They are, therefore, popular and used in all 50 states. The downside is that the premium is split in two parts.

FHA mortgage interest rates are based on mortgage bonds issued by the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA). Investors, by the way, tend to call GNMA, “Ginnie Mae”. As Ginnie Mae bond prices rise, the interest rates for FHA mortgage plans drop. These plans include the standard FHA loan, as well as FHA specialty products which include the 203k construction bond; the $100-down Good Neighbor Next Door program; and the FHA Back to Work loan for homeowners who recently lost their home in a short sale or foreclosure.

3. VA mortgage interest rates – VA mortgage interest rates are also controlled by GMA bonds which is why FHA and VA mortgage bonds often move in tandem with both controlled by fluctuations from the same source. It is also why both move differently than conventional rates. So, some days will see high rates for conventional plans and low rates for VA/ FHA; as well as the reverse.

VA mortgage interest rates are used for loans guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs such as the standard VA loan for military borrowers; the VA Energy Efficiency Loan; and the VA Streamline Refinance. VA mortgages also offer 100% financing to U.S. veterans and active service members, with no requirement for mortgage insurance.

USDA mortgage interest rates – USDA mortgage interest rates are also linked to Ginnie Mae secured-bonds (just as FHA and VA mortgage rates are). Of the three, however, USDA rates are often lowest because they are guaranteed by the government and backed by a small mortgage insurance requirement. USDA loans are available in rural and suburban neighborhoods nationwide. The program provides no-money-down financing to U.S. buyers at very low mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates predictions for 2016

Wondering what your chances are for getting a mortgage for a good rate the coming year? Wonder no further.

Here are the predictions for the 30-year trajectory:

  • Fannie Mae mortgage rate forecast: 4.4% in 2016)
  • Freddie Mac forecast: 4.7% Q1 2016, 4.9% Q2 in 2016
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecast: 5.2% in 2016
  • National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecast: 6% in 2016.

In other words, mortgage rates are projected to rise slightly in 2016.

Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate

There are going to be many factors which affect your mortgage rate, some of which are under your control and others which you can do nothing about. You should be aware of all of the factors which might affect your mortgage rate and take them into consideration before applying for a mortgage loan. You can take steps to improve some of the factors which affect your mortgage rate and make decisions about when is best to apply based on basic knowledge about your mortgage.

What is a mortgage?

Most people understand the basic definition that the mortgage is a loan which is used to purchase a home. There is slightly more to the mortgage than this. The mortgage is a loan which uses the property itself as collateral. If you fail to make the payments on your mortgage, the property may be taken over by the lending institution who has given you the mortgage.

You want the best mortgage rates

The mortgage is a long-life loan meaning that it is not going to be fully repaid for many, many years. A standard home mortgage is often a fifteen or twenty year loan. This means that you want the best mortgage rate possible because you are going to be needing to pay this rate for a long, long time.

Factors affecting mortgage rates

Major factors affecting mortgage rates include:

o Amount of down payment on mortgage
o Consideration of closing costs
o Income of mortgage borrower
o Life of mortgage loan
o Life of mortgage rate
o Total mortgage loan amount
o Whether or not the mortgage rate is adjustable

Factors making up a desirable mortgage rate

The basic premise of the desirable mortgage rate is that it is within your budget, has a low interest rate and is paid back as quickly as possible. How all of this plays out in terms of each individual mortgage depends upon the independent factors of each borrower. For example, you might prefer a fifteen-year mortgage loan to one that is paid over thirty years. This will allow you to save money over time because you pay less in interest. However, if you can not afford the higher monthly payments and you default on the mortgage loan, you have not helped yourself out any.

Negotiating a desirable mortgage rate

The simplest method of achieving a desirable mortgage rate is to work with a mortgage broker. You will have to pay up front fees to the mortgage broker, usually at the time when all of the closing costs are paid on the home purchase, but you will save money and time in the long run. The mortgage broker plays the role of assessing your personal financial situation and working with lending institutions to negotiate the best possible mortgage rate for your situation. The mortgage broker has experience with all of the factors and terms used in the mortgage loan negotiation and can use this expertise to your benefit.

Repayment of the mortgage loan

When you are working out a plan of repayment for the mortgage loan, you should look at the amount of money available for down payment, the amount you can reasonably pay on the loan each month, the grace period of any adjustable mortgage loan interest rates and any fees owed for early repayment of the mortgage. Working with the mortgage broker, you should be able to develop a repayment plan for your mortgage which allows you to purchase and remain in your home through the life of the loan.